Luddite - is the Singularity near?

One on Tech Bubbles

Video Game Crash 1983:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Video_game_crash_of_1983

Exaggerated expectations of market growth, saturated market, too many players in the market, too little quality, no new features.

Dot-Com Bubble 2001:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble

In short ;)

IBM internet hype (commercial, 1997)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvDCk3pY4qo

>> "It says here, the internet is the future of business. We have to be on the internet."
>> "Why?"
>> "Doesn't say."

Crypto Meltdown 2022:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency_bubble#2021%E2%80%932024_crash

Unregulated market, scams, exaggerated expectations of what the system can perform, exaggerated expectations of market growth.

My conclusion:

Video games recovered with new consoles with new features, better graphics and sound capabilities, more advanced games, and are still going strong.

The World Wide Web recovered with social media, Web 2.0, ~5 billion humans connected, still ~3 billions to go.

Crypto recovered and is meant to stay, if not at least as payment method for the hackers out there.

Outlook: Generative AI ???

Hype? Bubble? Bloom or Doom?

I say this time is different, cos generative AIs generate so called surplus value, the AI "delivers". Whatever this is in the eye of the beholder, it is measurable in dollars. You invest resources in creating an AI based on neural networks, and it returns surplus value (an economical feedback loop is established). A new smartphone does not generate surplus value, a Bitcoin does not generate surplus value, generative AIs generate surplus value:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surplus_value

Nevertheless, apply lessons from the past on current generative AIs:

  • exaggerated expectations of what the system can perform?
  • exaggerated expectations of market growth?
  • unregulated market?
  • too many players in the market?
  • too little quality?
  • no new features?
  • scams?

The Pope on AI

Pope Francis tells G7 that humans must not lose control of AI

[...]
The pope said AI represented an "epochal transformation" for mankind, but stressed the need for close oversight of the ever-developing technology to preserve human life and dignity.

"No machine should ever choose to take the life of a human being," he said, adding that people should not let superpowerful algorithms decide their destiny.

"We would condemn humanity to a future without hope if we took away people's ability to make decisions about themselves and their lives, by dooming them to depend on the choices of machines," he warned.
[...]
"Yet at the same time, it could bring with it a greater injustice between advanced and developing nations or between dominant and oppressed social classes," he said.

"It is up to everyone to make good use of (AI) but the onus is on politics to create the conditions for such good use to be possible and fruitful," he added.
[...]

Nip It In The Bud

World's First Bioprocessor Uses 16 Human Brain Organoids, Consumes Less Power

"A Swiss biocomputing startup has launched an online platform that provides remote access to 16 human brain organoids," reports Tom's Hardware: FinalSpark claims its Neuroplatform is the world's first online platform delivering access to biological neurons in vitro. Moreover, bioprocessors like this "consume a million times less power than traditional digital processors," the company says.
[...]
In a recent research paper about its developments, FinalSpakr claims that training a single LLM like GPT-3 required approximately 10GWh — about 6,000 times greater energy consumption than the average European citizen uses in a whole year. Such energy expenditure could be massively cut following the successful deployment of bioprocessors. 
[...]
The operation of the Neuroplatform currently relies on an architecture that can be classified as wetware: the mixing of hardware, software, and biology.
[...]
"While a wetware computer is still largely conceptual, there has been limited success with construction and prototyping, which has acted as a proof of the concept's realistic application to computing in the future." 

DARPA ACE Dogfight

US Air Force Confirms First Successful AI Dogfight

[...]
the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) revealed that an AI-controlled jet successfully faced a human pilot during an in-air dogfight test carried out last year.
[...]
After carrying out dogfighting simulations using the AI pilot, DARPA put its work to the test by installing the AI system inside its experimental X-62A aircraft. That allowed it to get the AI-controlled craft into the air at the Edwards Air Force Base in California, where it says it carried out its first successful dogfight test against a human in September 2023.

Synchron Brain Implant

Synchron Readies Large-Scale Brain Implant Trial

[...]
Synchron's device is delivered to the brain via the large vein that sits next to the motor cortex in the brain instead of being surgically implanted into the brain cortex like Neuralink's.
[...]
In 2020, Synchron reported that patients, opens new tab in its Australian study could use its first-generation device to type an average of 16 characters per minute. That's better than non-invasive devices that sit atop the head and record the electrical activity of the brain, which have helped people type up to eight characters per minute
[...]
Reuters notes that Synchron's investors include billionaires Jeff Bezos and Bill Gates. It's competing with Elon Musk's Neuralink brain implant startup and claims it's farther along in the process of testing its device.

RIP Vernor Vinge

Vernor Vinge, Father of the Tech Singularity, Has Died At Age 79

Vinge, Vernor. "The Coming Technological Singularity: How to Survive in the Post-Human Era", in Vision-21: Interdisciplinary Science and Engineering in the Era of Cyberspace, G. A. Landis, ed., NASA Publication CP-10129, pp. 11–22, 1993.

https://web.archive.org/web/20140121032922/http://www.aleph.se/Trans/Global/Singularity/sing.html

https://archive.org/download/pdfy-MZn00mx0Y3Kv2X9O/Vernor%20Vinge%20The%20coming%20technological%20singularity.pdf

AGI/ASI and TS takeoff

People talk a lot about AGI/ASI these days, artificial general intelligence and artificial super intelligence, the strong AI, with different definitions and time estimations when we will reach such a level, but, the actual point in TS takeoff is the feedback loop, when the system starts to feed its own development in an feedback loop and exceeds human understanding. As mentioned, we already have a human <-> computer feedback loop, better computers help us humans to build better computers, but I am still waiting/observing for the direct link, AI builds better AI, computers build better computers, the AI autopoiesis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autopoiesis

Haha - Sicak Kava #1

Haha, GPT's first Sicak Kava - Hot Skull moment? A stage one jabberer? :)

ChatGPT Goes Temporarily 'Insane' With Unexpected Outputs, Spooking Users

...
reports of the AI assistant "having a stroke," "going insane," "rambling," and "losing it."
...
"It gave me the exact same feeling -- like watching someone slowly lose their mind either from psychosis or dementia,"
...
Some users even began questioning their own sanity. "What happened here?

Neuralink - Control a Mouse via Thought

Neuralink's First Human Patient Able To Control Mouse Through Thinking, Musk Says

The first human patient implanted with a brain-chip from Neuralink appears to have fully recovered and is able to control a computer mouse using their thoughts, the startup's founder Elon Musk said late on Monday. From a report: "Progress is good, and the patient seems to have made a full recovery, with no ill effects that we are aware of. Patient is able to move a mouse around the screen by just thinking," Musk said in a Spaces event on social media platform X. Musk said Neuralink was now trying to get as many mouse button clicks as possible from the patient. The firm successfully implanted a chip on its first human patient last month, after receiving approval for human trial recruitment in September.

Nip It In The Bud

Scientists Have 3D Bioprinted Functioning Human Brain Tissue

...
As New Atlas explains, researchers placed neurons grown from pluripotent stem cells (those capable of becoming multiple different cell types) within a new bio-ink gel made with fibrinogen and thrombin, biomaterials involved in blood clotting. Adding other hydrogels then helped loosen the bio-ink to solve for the 3 encountered during previous 3D-printed tissue experiments. .... The new structures could interact thanks to producing neurotransmitters, and even created support cell networks within the 3D-printed tissue. ... Researchers believe their technique isn't limited to creating just those two types of cultures, but hypothetically "pretty much any type of neurons [sic] at any time,"

More Moore....beyond Moore's Law?

Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, died on Friday, March 24, 2023:

"Gordon Moore, Intel Co-Founder, Dies at 94"
https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/gordon-moore-obituary.html

...and chip-makers are struggling to keep Moore's Law alive?

"...Moore's Law is alive and well today and the overall trend continues, though it remains to be seen whether it can be sustained in the longer term..."
https://www.futuretimeline.net/data-trends/moores-law.htm

But, IMHO, we are already kind of cheating in regard of transistor-count on a chip. AMD uses up to 12 chiplets, Intel 4 slices, and Apple 2 slices in their CPUs, and now the chiplet design enters also the GPU domain, with up to 1KW power usage for super-computer chips.

We have now 5nm, 3nm in pipe, and 2nm and 1+nm upcoming fab process, ofc, meanwhile marketing numbers, but should reflect transistor density/efficiency of the fab process.

We might have upcoming X-ray lithography and new materials like graphene in pipe. What else?

What about:

- Memristors?
- Photonics?
- Quantum Computers?
- Wetware (artificial biological brains)?
- MPU - memory processing unit?
- Superconductor (at room temperature)?

I still wait to see Memristor based NVRAM and neuromorphic chip designs....but maybe people are now into Wetware for large language models, biological brains run way more energy efficient they say...

and, it seems kind of funny to me, at first we used GPUs for things like Bitcoin mining, now everybody tries to get hands on these for generative AIs. There is currently so much money flowing into this domain, that progress for the next couple of years seems assured -> Moore's Second Law.

We have CPUs, GPUs, TPUs, DSPs, ASICs and FPGAs, and extended from scalar to vector to matrix and spatial computing.

We have the Turing-Machine, the Quantum-Turing-Machine, what about the Hyper-Turing-Machine?

We used at first electro-mechanical relays, then tubes, then transistors, then ICs, then microchips to build binary computers. I myself predicted that with reaching the 8 billions human mark (~2023), we will see a new, groundbreaking, technology passing through, still waiting for the next step in this line.

A Mirror

Machines, the AI, talking twaddle and suffering from hallucinations? A mirror of our society. A machine mind with a rudimentary body but disconnected from its soul? A mirror of our society. Machine minds used to generate fake-money, fake-speech and fake-porn? A mirror of our society.

Yet Another Turing Test

Now with context generative AIs, the switch from pattern recognition to pattern creation with neural networks, I would like to propose my own kind of Turing Test:

An AI which is able to code a chess engine and outperforms humans in this task.

1A) With hand-crafted eval. 1B) With neural networks.

2A) Outperforms non-programmers. 2B) Outperforms average chess-programmers. 2C) Outperforms top chess-programmers.

3A) An un-self-aware AI, the "RI", restricted intelligence. 2B) A self-aware AI, the "SI", sentient intelligence.

***update 2024-02-14***

4A) An AI based on expert-systems. 4B) An AI based on neural networks. 4C) A merger of both.

The Chinese Room Argument applied onto this test would claim that there is no conscious in need to perform such a task, hence this test is not meant to measure self-awareness, consciousness or sentience, but what we call human intelligence.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_room

The first test candidate was already posted by Thomas Zipproth, Dec 08, 2022:

Provide me with a minimal working source code of a chess engine
https://talkchess.com/forum3/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=81097&start=20#p939245

***update 2024-06-08***

Second test candidate posted by Darko Markovic 2024-06-08 on TalkChess:

GPT-4o made a chess engine
https://talkchess.com/viewtopic.php?t=83882

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