Homework for the part-time Luddites in here, add the Super-AI into the HANDY model....

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921800914000615

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

The AI competes already with humans for resources, water and energy, and, it seems we are running out of juice...do we have enough resources left for the TS to take off, or, did we enter already the ELE doom loop?

Elon Musk Predicts Electricity Shortage in Two Years
https://hardware.slashdot.org/story/23/07/31/0128257/elon-musk-predicts-electricity-shortage-in-two-years

"I can't emphasize enough: we need more electricity,"

"However much electricity you think you need, more than that is needed."

• Turing Test, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing_test
• Lovelace Test, https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Turing-Test#Erweiterte_Konzepte
• Winograd Test, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winograd_schema_challenge
• Metzinger Test, https://epsilon.app26.de/post/gpt-3-scratching-at-the-edge-of-the-metzinger-test/
• Lemoine Test, https://epsilon.app26.de/post/turing-test-metzinger-test-lemoine-test/
• Suleyman Test, https://epsilon.app26.de/post/modern-turing-test-proposed/

...TS, it's here.

DeepMind Co-Founder Proposes a New Kind of Turing Test For Chatbots

Mustafa Suleyman, co-founder of DeepMind, suggests chatbots like ChatGPT and Google Bard should be put through a "modern Turing test" where their ability to turn $100,000 into $1 million is evaluated to measure human-like intelligence. He discusses the idea in his new book called "The Coming Wave: Technology, Power, and the Twenty-first Century's Greatest Dilemma." Insider reports: In the book, Suleyman dismissed the traditional Turing test because it's "unclear whether this is a meaningful milestone or not," Bloomberg reported Tuesday. "It doesn't tell us anything about what the system can do or understand, anything about whether it has established complex inner monologues or can engage in planning over abstract time horizons, which is key to human intelligence," he added. The Turing test was introduced by Alan Turing in tnewhe 1950s to examine whether a machine has human-level intelligence. During the test, human evaluators determine whether they're speaking to a human or a machine. If the machine can pass for a human, then it passes the test. Instead of comparing AI's intelligence to humans, Suleyman proposes tasking a bot with short-term goals and tasks that it can complete with little human input in a process known as "artificial capable intelligence," or ACI. To achieve ACI, Suleyman says AI bots should pass a new Turing test in which it receives a $100,000 seed investment and has to turn it into $1 million. As part of the test, the bot must research an e-commerce business idea, develop a plan for the product, find a manufacturer, and then sell the item. He expects AI to achieve this milestone in the next two years. "We don't just care about what a machine can say; we also care about what it can do," he wrote, per Bloomberg.

Some scientists still discuss if and when the Anthropocene started, others ponder about the Novacene, my question, will the Novacene be a trans-humanist or post-humanist one...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropocene
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novacene

The technosphere is eating up the complete biosphere, earth's biomass is replaced with silicon, the closed, biological entropy system is being replaced by an technological negentropy system. Question, if we assume (human++) technology is an parasite to Gaia's biosphere, will it be a butterfly?

The world is facing an imminent water crisis, with demand expected to outstrip the supply of fresh water by 40% by the end of this decade, experts have said on the eve of a crucial UN water summit. From a report: Governments must urgently stop subsidising the extraction and overuse of water through misdirected agricultural subsidies, and industries from mining to manufacturing must be made to overhaul their wasteful practices, according to a landmark report on the economics of water. Nations must start to manage water as a global common good, because most countries are highly dependent on their neighbours for water supplies, and overuse, pollution and the climate crisis threaten water supplies globally, the report's authors say. Johan Rockstrom, the director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and co-chair of the Global Commission on the Economics of Water, and a lead author of the report, told the Guardian the world's neglect of water resources was leading to disaster. "The scientific evidence is that we have a water crisis. We are misusing water, polluting water, and changing the whole global hydrological cycle, through what we are doing to the climate. It's a triple crisis." Rockstrom's fellow Global Commission on the Economics of Water co-chair Mariana Mazzucato, a professor at University College London and also a lead author of the report, added: "We need a much more proactive, and ambitious, common good approach. We have to put justice and equity at the centre of this, it's not just a technological or finance problem."

https://science.slashdot.org/story/23/03/17/175225/global-fresh-water-demand-will-outstrip-supply-by-40-by-2030-say-experts

In a world in need of fresh/drinking water, why the AI?

Hmm...

• Cooling failure brings down Google Cloud data center in London on UK's hottest day
• Twitter's data center knocked out by extreme heat in California
• California Warns of Possible Summer Blackouts as Power Runs Low
• Why is Texas suffering power blackouts during the winter freeze?
• New Bill Would Ban Bitcoin Mining Across New York State for Three Years

Movies and books (SciFi) pick up the energies of the collective subconsciousness and address these with their themes, and I realize that meanwhile we entered something I call the event horizon, the story lines do break.

Let us assume in some future, maybe in 30 years (~2050) there will be an event, either the takeoff of the Technological Singularity, or the collapse of human civilization by ecocide followed by a human ELE, or something I call the Jackpot scenario (term by William Gibson), where every possible scenario happens together at once. If we assume that there will be such a kind of event in future, then I guess we are already caught in its event horizon, and there is no route to escape anymore.

...one major topic of this blog was AI vs. ELE, takeoff of the Technological Singularity vs. Extinction Level Event. There is already a negative feedback loop of the ELE present:

'Taiwan is facing a drought, and it has prioritized its computer chip business over farmers.'

'U.S. Data Centers Rely on Water from Stressed Basins'

'Musk Wades Into Tesla Water Wars With Berlin’s “Eco Elite”'

With an incoming ELE, is there still enough momentum in pipe for the TS to take off?

DeepMind has created an AI system named AlphaCode that it says "writes computer programs at a competitive level." From a report:
The Alphabet subsidiary tested its system against coding challenges used in human competitions and found that its program achieved an "estimated rank" placing it within the top 54 percent of human coders. The result is a significant step forward for autonomous coding, says DeepMind, though AlphaCode's skills are not necessarily representative of the sort of programming tasks faced by the average coder. Oriol Vinyals, principal research scientist at DeepMind, told The Verge over email that the research was still in the early stages but that the results brought the company closer to creating a flexible problem-solving AI -- a program that can autonomously tackle coding challenges that are currently the domain of humans only. "In the longer-term, we're excited by [AlphaCode's] potential for helping programmers and non-programmers write code, improving productivity or creating new ways of making software," said Vinyals.

https://developers.slashdot.org/story/22/02/02/178234/deepmind-says-its-new-ai-coding-engine-is-as-good-as-an-average-human-programmer

Google is using AI to design its next generation of AI chips more quickly than humans can. Designs that take humans months can be matched or beaten by AI in six hours

https://www.theverge.com/2021/6/10/22527476/google-machine-learning-chip-design-tpu-floorplanning

Introducing GitHub Copilot: your AI pair programmer

Today, we are launching a technical preview of GitHub Copilot, a new AI pair programmer that helps you write better code. GitHub Copilot draws context from the code you’re working on, suggesting whole lines or entire functions. It helps you quickly discover alternative ways to solve problems, write tests, and explore new APIs without having to tediously tailor a search for answers on the internet. As you type, it adapts to the way you write code—to help you complete your work faster.

Developed in collaboration with OpenAI, GitHub Copilot is powered by OpenAI Codex, a new AI system created by OpenAI. OpenAI Codex has broad knowledge of how people use code and is significantly more capable than GPT-3 in code generation, in part, because it was trained on a data set that includes a much larger concentration of public source code. GitHub Copilot works with a broad set of frameworks and languages, but this technical preview works especially well for Python, JavaScript, TypeScript, Ruby and Go. 

https://github.blog/2021-06-29-introducing-github-copilot-ai-pair-programmer/

Ray Kurzweil Predicts Universal Basic Incomes Worldwide Within 20 Years

+1 points for the Singularity to take off.

China already starts to test geoengineering in Tibet to let it rain more often...

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

"About 3.6 billion people are estimated to be living in areas with a potential for water scarcity for at least one month per year, and this number could rise to as many as 5.7 billion people by 2050, according to a report published by UNESCO."

Water Shortages Could Affect 5 Billion People By 2050, UNESCO Warns

UNESCO/ UN- WATER Press Release N o.2018- xx PDF

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

One of the early Peak Human prophets was Malthus, in his 1798 book, 'An Essay on the Principle of Population', he postulated that the human population growths exponentially, but food production only linear, so there will occur fluctuation in population growth around an upper limit.

Later Paul R. Ehrlich predicted in his book, 'The Population Bomb' (1968), that we will reach an limit in the 1980s.

Meadows et al. concur in 'The Limits of Growth - 30 years update' (2004),  that we reached an upper limit already in the 1980s.

In 2015 Emmott concludes in his movie 'Ten Billion' that we already passed the upper bound.

UNO predictions say we may hit 9 billion humans in 2050, so the exponential population growth rate already declines, but the effects of an wast-fully economy pop up in many corners.

Now, in 2018, we are about 7.4 billion humans, and i say Malthus et al. were right.

Is is not about how many people Earth can feed, but how many people can live in an comfortable but sustainable manner.

What does Peak Human mean for the Technological Singularity?

The advent of Computers was driven by the exponential population growth in the 20th century. All the groundbreaking work was done in the 20th century.

When we face an decline in population growth, we also have to face an decline in new technologies developed.

Cos it is not only about developing new technologies, but also about maintaining the old knowledge.

Here is the point AI steps in, mankind's population growth alters, but the whole AI sector is growing and expanding.

Therefore the question is, is AI able to take on the decline?

Time will tell.

I guess the major uncertainty is, how Moore's Law will live on beyond 2021, when the 4 nm transistor production is reached, what some scientists consider as an physical and economical barrier.

I predict that by hitting the 8 billion humans mark, we will have developed another, groundbreaking, technology, similar with the advent of the transistor, integrated circuit and microchip.

So, considering the uncertainty of Peak Human vs. Rise of AI,
i give +-0 points for the Singularity to take off.

Insects are dying,
Cape Town is running out of drink-water,
and Geoengineering won't help.

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

Shake it, we won't make it.

Watch this movie from 2015, Ten Billion and agree with me,

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

Shake it, we won't make it, UN Secretary-General issues Red Alert for the world in 2018...

Nationalism and xenophobia are on the rise, inequality is growing, climate change is accelerating and the world is seeing horrific violations of human rights, he said. Global anxieties about nuclear weapons were the highest since the Cold War.

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

Ohoh, another warning from our beloved scientists concerning our impaired ecosphere.

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

"Without rapid cuts in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions, we will be heading for dangerous temperature increases by the end of this century," Petteri Taalas, the WMO's secretary-general, said in a statement.

If we are too busy with an collapsing biospehre, we may have not enough resources for the Singularity.

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

Silicon Valley Techies begin to disconnect from the Internet, attracts too much attention and can be manipulative they say.

Is it just rogue memes fighting for human brain resources, or could it be an sign that we reached some kind of informational tipping point?

In both cases, i give +1 points for the Singularity to take off.

Ohoh, source code is becoming too complex to get things done.

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.

According to an paper from Stanford University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, ideas are getting harder and harder to find...

-1 points for the Singularity to take off.