Which Technology Will Prevail?
Looking back at some previous predictions of mine:
Desktop Applications vs. Web Browser Applications
Back then in the 90s I had a discussion with a tech-budy, which technology will prevail, if the classic applications on our desktop or web browser applications via the internet? I think I can score this one for me, browser applications, with a little *, it is now probably about apps on our smartphones.
Windows vs. Linux
When Windows Vista arrived people were very unhappy about that version, I had about a dozen users in my circle I helped to switch to Ubuntu Linux, and I thought this is it, "This year is the year of Linux on a desktop!". I was wrong, Windows 7 arrived (I heard grand master Bill Gates himself laid hands on that) and people were happy again with Microsoft.
Proprietary Login vs. Open Login
When the Facebook login as web-service appeared I shrugged and asked why we don't use an open solution, meanwhile we have things like OpenID and OAuth.
Closed Social Networks vs. Open Social Networks
Seems WIP, users might need a lil more nudging to make a switch, or alike.
SQL vs. SPARQL
When the first RDF and SPARQL implementations arrived, I, as SQL developer, was impressed, and was convinced it will replace SQL. Wrong, people still use SQL or switched to things like no-SQL database systems.
Looking forward:
Transistor/IC/Microchip vs. ???
I predicted in this blog, that by reaching the 8 billion humans mark (~2022), we will have developed another, ground breaking technology that surpasses the transistor/IC/microchip step. Still waiting for that one.
ARM vs. RISC-V
I think this world is big enough for both, or alike.
Neural Networks vs. Expert Systems
Well, we all know about AI "hallucinations", you can view neural networks as probabilistic systems and expert systems as deterministic ones. For things like poetry, images, audio or video a probabilistic system might be sufficient, but in some areas you really want more accuracy, you want a reliable, deterministic system, what we also used to call an expert system.
AGI/ASI ETA?
What is the estimated time of arrival for AGI/ASI, artificial general intelligence/artificial super intelligence? I wrote before that if we do not blow the planet otherwise up and current pace continues, I estimate that ~2030 we will have an ASI present, the switch from AGI to ASI, from trans-human intelligence to post-human intelligence, the peak of humans being able to follow/understand the AI, the inflection point of the technological singularity.
Transhumanist vs. Neoprimitive
Haha, which one will prevail in the long run? I myself am both, Neoprim and Transhumanist, the idealist in me is a Neoprim, the realist is a Transhumanist, or was it vice versa? ;)
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