The End of Moore's Law?
Moore's law, the heartbeat of computer evolution, is the observation that every two years the amount of transistors on integrated circuits doubles. Gordon Moore, co founder of Intel, proposed an doubling every year in 1965 and an doubling every two years in 1975.
In practice this results in an doubling of compute power of computer chips every two years.
The doubling of transistor amount is achieved by shrinking their size. The 1970s Intel 8080 chip was clocked with 2 Mhz, had about 6000 transistors and was produced in an 6 Micrometer process. Nowadays processors have billions of transistors and use an 14 or 10 Nanometer process.
But less known is Moore's Second Law, the observation that also the investment costs for the fabrics grow exponentially.
The last ITRS report of 2015 predicts that transistor shrinking will hit such an economic wall in 2021, and alternative techniques have to be used to keep Moore's Law alive.
Considering this news,
i give -1 points for the Singularity to take off.
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