Video Game Crash 1983:

Exaggerated expectations of market growth, saturated market, too many players in the market, too little quality, no new features.

Dot-Com Bubble 2001:

In short ;)

IBM internet hype (commercial, 1997)

>> "It says here, the internet is the future of business. We have to be on the internet."
>> "Why?"
>> "Doesn't say."

Crypto Meltdown 2022:

Unregulated market, scams, exaggerated expectations of what the system can perform, exaggerated expectations of market growth.

My conclusion:

Video games recovered with new consoles with new features, better graphics and sound capabilities, more advanced games, and are still going strong.

The World Wide Web recovered with social media, Web 2.0, ~5 billion humans connected, still ~3 billions to go.

Crypto recovered and is meant to stay, if not at least as payment method for the hackers out there.

Outlook: Generative AI ???

Hype? Bubble? Bloom or Doom?

I say this time is different, cos generative AIs generate so called surplus value, the AI "delivers". Whatever this is in the eye of the beholder, it is measurable in dollars. You invest resources in creating an AI based on neural networks, and it returns surplus value (an economical feedback loop is established). A new smartphone does not generate surplus value, a Bitcoin does not generate surplus value, generative AIs generate surplus value:

Nevertheless, apply lessons from the past on current generative AIs:

  • exaggerated expectations of what the system can perform?
  • exaggerated expectations of market growth?
  • unregulated market?
  • too many players in the market?
  • too little quality?
  • no new features?
  • scams?